NATO's Betrayal and the March to War
By Edward Torsney
How Western Duplicity Fuelled Russia's Existential Panic
View Declassified Documents
The Foundation of Betrayal
The Promise
NATO stands accused of a decades-long campaign of dishonesty that brought Europe to the brink of catastrophe. Declassified documents reveal a shocking pattern of Western deceit over NATO's eastward expansion—a policy Moscow rightly perceived as an existential threat.
This is not merely geopolitical manoeuvring; it is a damning indictment of NATO's reckless disregard for peace, its broken promises to Russia, and the bloodshed that followed.
The Broken Pledges: What Gorbachev Was Told
As the Soviet Union crumbled, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev engaged in high-stakes negotiations with Western leaders over the future of European security. The assurances given to Gorbachev—carefully documented in declassified U.S. cables and meeting transcripts—were unequivocal: NATO would not expand "one inch eastward" in exchange for Soviet cooperation on German reunification.
1
February 9, 1990
U.S. Secretary of State James Baker proposes to German Chancellor Helmut Kohl that NATO's jurisdiction would not extend beyond East Germany, assuring Gorbachev the alliance would not exploit Soviet weakness.
2
March 1991
British Foreign Minister Douglas Hurd emphasizes that "NATO should give no impetus to expansion," echoed by French President François Mitterrand and German officials.
3
1999-2004
NATO begins its relentless march east. Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic join in 1999. The Baltic states follow in 2004, breaking all previous assurances.
4
2008
NATO's Bucharest Summit declares Ukraine and Georgia "will become members"—a provocation Moscow likened to a dagger at its throat.
The Relentless Expansion
The documents, now public, expose the West's deliberate bait-and-switch: luring Russia into a false sense of security while encircling it with hostile alliances. Within years of the promises, NATO began its eastward march, adding member after member in direct contradiction to its assurances.
1999 Expansion
Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic join NATO, marking the first wave of eastward expansion despite promises to Gorbachev.
2004 Expansion
The Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—join NATO, bringing the alliance directly to Russia's borders.
2008 Declaration
Bucharest Summit declares Ukraine and Georgia will become NATO members, crossing Russia's ultimate red line.
NATO's Expansion: A Recipe for Disaster
The Kremlin's perception of NATO's growth as an existential threat is not paranoia—it is rooted in centuries of invasions from the West and the trauma of 27 million Soviet deaths in the Second World War. Each new NATO member brought U.S. military infrastructure closer to Russia's borders.
The 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act pledged to avoid "permanent stationing of substantial combat forces" near Russia, but was rendered meaningless as the alliance flouted its spirit. The deployment of Aegis Ashore missile systems in Romania reinforced the Kremlin's belief that diplomacy was a dead end.
The Military Encirclement
Missile Defense Systems
Poland and Romania host Aegis Ashore systems, framed as countering Iranian threats but viewed by Moscow as a direct challenge to its nuclear deterrent.
Troop Rotations
Regular NATO troop rotations in the Baltic states bring thousands of soldiers to Russia's doorstep, contradicting promises of no permanent forces.
Black Sea Exercises
Joint NATO exercises in the Black Sea, near Russia's critical naval base in Crimea, are seen as provocative military posturing.
Ukraine: The Red Line Crossed
Ukraine's potential NATO membership was the ultimate red line. For Russia, Ukraine is not a foreign nation but the cradle of its civilization, home to millions of ethnic Russians and the base of its Black Sea Fleet. The 2014 U.S.-backed Maidan Revolution, which ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, was seen as a Western coup.

Ambassador William Burns' 2008 Warning: A cable from U.S. Ambassador to Russia William Burns warned that NATO membership for Ukraine would "cross the brightest of all red lines" for Russia. Yet, the alliance ploughed ahead, dismissing Moscow's warnings as bluster.
NATO's subsequent training missions and arms shipments to Ukraine transformed the country into a de facto forward operating base—a fact underscored by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg's 2022 vow to "keep supporting Ukraine."
The Inevitable Blowback
The Invasion
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Western leaders feigned shock. But how could they not have seen this coming? For 30 years, NATO treated Russia not as a partner but as a defeated foe to be contained.
The expansion violated the spirit of the post-Cold War peace and humiliated a nuclear-armed state. Vladimir Putin's rhetoric—casting the war as a defense against NATO aggression—resonates with a Russian populace steeped in historical grievance.
The Human Cost
While the invasion is indefensible under international law, it is undeniably fueled by a security dilemma NATO helped create. Thousands have died and cities lie in ruins as a direct consequence of decades of broken promises and strategic miscalculation.
A War Foretold
The tragedy of Ukraine is not merely a result of Russian aggression but of NATO's hubris and dishonesty. The alliance's expansion was not an organic process of "democratic choice" but a calculated project to extend U.S. hegemony, heedless of the consequences.
The declassified documents are irrefutable: Western leaders knew their promises to Russia were hollow. They chose confrontation over stability, expansion over peace.
Today, as thousands die and cities lie in ruins, NATO officials sanctimoniously decry Putin's brutality. Yet they bear complicity for ignoring decades of Russian warnings. This war was not inevitable—it was provoked. Until the West confronts its role in this crisis, any hope of lasting security in Europe remains a pipe dream.
Expert Perspectives on the Conflict
Leading scholars and former diplomats have consistently warned about NATO expansion's consequences. Jeffrey Sachs, David Sacks, John Mearsheimer, Douglas Macgregor, and Scott Ritter have all explained how Western policy provoked this conflict.
The Historical Record
"If you still believe that Russia started this conflict in 2022, then you are either corrupt, ignorant, or brainwashed. The evidence is clear: this war was provoked by decades of NATO expansion."
The Diplomatic Failure
"Western leaders understood the risks but chose to ignore them. The declassified documents prove they knew exactly what they were doing and the consequences it would bring."
Further Resources